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Skills and Tools for Managing Uncertainty and Risks

To build applied skills in using tools and techniques to identify the sources of uncertainty that give rise to risks in high-stakes projects and to isolate and absorb the uncertainty factors to limit their potential impact.

Course Description:
This course is geared for managers and other professionals who need more than a cursory knowledge of the subject of managing risks, especially those who deal with projects in which the consequences of failure are significant. The participants will learn how to use both quantitative and qualitative tools to help then to identify risk factors, track the evolution of risks over the lifecycle of a project, and take preventive measures to control the underlying factors that give rise to risks or that elevate their potential for occurring.  The training is conducted in a 1-day workshop but the option for follow-on training and consultation is also available.  The outline below provides a list of suggested topics, but the course can be customized to emphasize topics of primary interest to the client.

 Course Outline:

  • Assessing risk management initiatives on the basis of cost-benefit trade-offs

  • Using Bayes theorem to revise estimates of risk uncertainty

  • Understanding and the Monte Carlo technique―it's strengths and limitations as a risk management tool

  • Using Failure Mode and Effects Analysis (FMEA) as an anticipatory risk-avoidance tool

  • Identifying and reaching consensus on possible risk events and their relative impact

  • Using fault trees to identify risk vulnerabilities and to devise fault-proofing measures

  • Using the FMEA results to specify risk-mitigation actions and to communicate these to decision makers

  • Understanding how decision makers process information and make decisions about risk and uncertainty

  • How to quantify uncertainty and frame it in terms decision makers will hear and understand

  • Best practices for creating charts and graphs that effectively depict risk possibilities and risk trends

  • Best practices for creating charts and graphs that effectively depict risk possibilities and risk trends

  • Special risks and challenges associated with fast-track projects

  • How to account for uncertainty in the analysis of schedule and cost risks

  • A tool for tracking the emergence and evolution of risks over the lifecycle of the project

  • Using the CRIA form to assess the risk impact of change requests


This course was designed by the author of the book . . .

And the forthcoming book ...

Why Projects Continue to Overrun Their Schedules and What to Do About It

Duration: 1-day.

Lon Roberts, Ph.D. is the principal designer and instructor of the course. Dr. Roberts has held positions as a systems engineer, college professor, association executive, and is currently a principal partner of Roberts & Roberts Associates, an international training and consulting firm based in Plano, TX. He is also the author of four books and numerous
articles and is frequently invited to speak at conferences and professional meetings.

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